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The summer movie season has become as predictable as Simon Cowell's slamming a contestant on American Idol. Every year, it brings another round of sequels, comic-book adaptations, computer-animated high jinks, romantic comedies, action-thrillers and a few scary movies. This is the time of the giant popcorn tub, when we go to the movies for pure entertainment, not high art. And we watch in droves, as evidenced by the fact that Hollywood earns more than half its annual profits this time of year.

The one thing summer movies have in common -- other than their predictability -- is that each stands roughly the same chance of reaching blockbuster status as it does just plain busting. Sequels and superhero stories are no guarantee of success, and even audiences seeking pure escapism can be fickle.

So how will this summer's offerings fare? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, we've decided to fire up the popcorn popper and consider whether the biggest movies to storm theaters in the next several months will sink or swim. As always, opening dates are subject to change.

Friday

Poseidon

Released in 1972, The Poseidon Adventure is one of the most beloved and earliest disaster movies. It receives a splashy update in this remake starring Josh Lucas, Kurt Russell and Richard Dreyfuss.

Sink: No one in this cast will be able to match the sympathy milked by Shelly Winters in the original.

Swim: Director Wolfgang Petersen, of Das Boot fame, knows how to make a claustrophobic undersea adventure.

Also opening: Goal! The Dream Begins, Just My Luck, Art School Confidential, Keeping Up With the Steins and L'Enfant

May 19

The da Vinci Code

Dan Brown's novel has prompted millions of readers to ponder the controversy it created involving Jesus and Mary Magdalene, and the book still perches atop The New York Times bestseller lists. Its success may cause some people to rebel and not read it, but perhaps they'll sit through a movie version.

Sink: Director Ron Howard flopped at the box office with Cinderella Man. Is he on a downswing?

Swim: Tom Hanks is always good, but the movie also boasts a strong supporting cast of international actors, including Audrey Tautou, Ian McKellen and Alfred Molina.

Also opening: Over the Hedge and See No Evil

May 26

X-Men: The Last Stand

The trilogy climaxes when mutants get the chance to cure their abnormalities and become human.

Sink: Director Brett Ratner may not have the stuff of Bryan Singer, who helmed the first two movies in the franchise.

Swim: The X-Men series is the best and most stirring of all the comic-book film adaptations.

Also opening: Down in the Valley and The Notorious Bettie Page

June 2

The Break-Up

This comedy could be the Wedding Crashers of 2006. Gossipmongers will feel obligated to see if real-life lovers Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Aniston have chemistry on-screen as well as off.

Sink: Isn't everyone tired of the gossip about Vaughn and Aniston?

Swim: Anyone who has been through a spectacular breakup can relate to this movie.

June 6

The Omen

The release date alone is pretty creepy: 6/6/06.

Sink: No one can improve on the original film about a couple who unknowingly adopts the Antichrist. Is any contemporary actor more authoritative than Gregory Peck?

Swim: The previews can send shivers up your spine. Casting Mia Farrow, of Rosemary's Baby fame, was a brilliant stroke. And the kid looks as scary as the boy from The Grudge.

June 9

Cars

A great cast -- including Paul Newman, Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cheech Marin, George Carlin and former racecar driver Richard Petty -- lends its voice to this animated film.

Sink: People have had it with cutesy anthropomorphic objects � la Toy Story.

Swim: One word -- Pixar. No one can top the company's computer-animated genius.

Also opening: A Prairie Home Companion, The Devil and Daniel Johnston and Twelve and Holding

June 16

Nacho Libre

Jack Black is due for a comedy hit. This one could be slammin'.

Sink: A fable set in the world of Mexican wrestling looks mighty bizarre.

Swim: Just the thought of a muy macho Jack Black is hilarious.

Also opening: The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, Garfield's A Tale of Two Kitties and The Lake House

June 23

Click

A comic twist on the 1979 Peter Sellers movie Being There, Click involves a universal remote control that renders its user the master of the universe.

Sink: Star Adam Sandler's juvenile brand of comedy has gotten tired.

Swim: Christopher Walken, who enlivens any movie in which he appears, plays the supernatural being. Look for David Hasselhoff in a bit of quirky casting.

Also opening: Waist Deep

June 30

Superman Returns

The Man of Steel comes back to the big screen.

Sink: The ghost of Christopher Reeve haunts this film. Can newcomer Brandon Routh escape his giant shadow?

Swim: Two-time X-Men director Bryan Singer takes on a new superhero. Parker Posey and Kevin Spacey should make great villains.

The Devil Wears Prada

The summer's most anticipated chick flick.

Sink: Can Anne Hathaway escape her goody-goody Princess Diaries image?

Swim: Meryl Streep is reportedly brilliant as a vicious fashion-magazine editor.

Also opening: Little Man (July 5)

July 7

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Disney's swashbuckling pirates return.

Sink: How can this sequel really differ from the original?

Swim: It's not every day that an actor can earn an Oscar nomination for playing a silly pirate, but Johnny Depp is that skilled at charming audiences.

July 14

You, Me and Dupree

Another potentially big romantic comedy, You, Me and Dupree concerns a newly married couple and the bachelor friend who won't go away.

Sink: As the thing who wouldn't leave, Owen Wilson could be more irritating than funny.

Swim: Matt Dillon, fresh off an Oscar nomination for Crash, certainly helped There's Something About Mary with his lovable dolt routine. And Kate Hudson only has to stand in place to be appealing.

Also opening: Pulse and Pathfinder

July 21

Lady in the Water

M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense, The Village) hopes to deliver another spooky movie. This time, he has crafted a tale about a mysterious nymph hiding under an apartment complex's swimming pool. It sounds like Splash crossed with Alien.

Sink: Shyamalan is no Alfred Hitchcock, and star Bryce Dallas Howard is no Grace Kelly.

Swim: Casting Paul Giamatti in the lead role of a thriller is a bold move.

Also opening: Monster House and My Super Ex-Girlfriend

July 28

Miami Vice

I can already see the Cigarette boats streaming across Biscayne Bay and hear that weird theme song.

Sink: This is so 1980s. Are Jamie Foxx and Colin Farrell really as sexy as they think they are?

Swim: Director Michael Mann remakes the TV show he created, which could be a good thing. And I can't believe that the classy Chinese actress Gong Li is in this cast. Even so, she's bound to be good.

Little Miss Sunshine

This potential charmer about a family traveling cross-country to take their daughter to a beauty pageant was a hit at this year's Sundance Film Festival.

Sink: We don't need another quirky sleeper like Napoleon Dynamite.

Swim: Star Steve Carell is electric, and anything with him in it is going to work.

Also opening: Barnyard and John Tucker Must Die

Aug. 4

Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

Will Ferrell goes redneck starring as a racecar driver. John C. Reilly plays his buddy, and Da Ali G Show's Sacha Baron Cohen portrays the gay -- yes, gay -- French Formula One driver who challenges them.

Sink: NASCAR fans take their racing seriously. If this movie is too silly, it may offend them.

Swim: Ferrell fans, start your engines.

Also opening: The Ant Bully, The Night Listener and Jet Li's Fearless

Aug. 9

World Trade Center

Director Oliver Stone tries his heavy hand at a 9/11 story starring Nicolas Cage.

Sink: Stone doesn't comprehend subtlety.

Swim: See "Sink."

Aug. 11

The Reaping

This movie could be the anti-Da Vinci Code. It follows a missionary who loses her faith while investigating strange religious phenomena in a Louisiana town.

Sink: The plot sounds as if these filmmakers need to get together with M. Night Shyamalan.

Swim: Hilary Swank elevates just about every movie she's in. Here, she's the one and only recognizable star.

Also opening: Accepted and Zoom

Aug. 18

Snakes on a Plane

This is what summer movies are all about. There's not a better popcorn-movie concept around. The film is already a phenomenon on the Internet.

Sink: So much buzz surrounds this self-evident movie that the actual thing could be anticlimactic. Plus, does anyone remember Anaconda?

Swim: We can't wait to hear Samuel L. Jackson making a big fuss about these slithery creatures.

Clerks II

In this sequel to the 1994 indie hit, the title characters played by Brian O'Halloran and Jeff Anderson have graduated from working at a quick stop to working at a fast-food restaurant. Now, that's progress.

Sink: Kevin Smith needs to get a new act. Then again, he got one with Jersey Girl, and look how well that turned out. And aren't these guys old by now? Come on, grow up.

Swim: Call it immature nostalgia, but I love these slackers.

Also opening: The Science of Sleep

Aug. 25

Idlewild

Finally, OutKast's "Andr� 3000" Benjamin and Antwan "Big Boi" Patton bring a Prohibition-era speakeasy to life.

Sink: The movie's oft-delayed journey to the big screen spells trouble.

Swim: The music should be great.

Also opening: Beerfest, How To Eat Fried Worms, Crossover and DOA: Dead or Alive